

Flex 3 is out. AIR 1.0 is out.
It’s long journey coming from Flex 1.0 to today we start enjoy a mature and feature rich RIA development platform. With AIR 1.0 release, Adobe technology finely and officially steps out of the browser confinement. Therefor, today Adobe becomes a true web application development platform that covers online/offline and browser/desktop.
Last time we’ve seen such event was when Java 1.2 released. But since them Java has been pushed way back to server side and becomes a huge complex being who is still seeking and adjusts its destination.
I believe Adobe will stay.
First of all, Flash based technologies are UI technologies. I don’t think Flash was designed to have a future such as Flex or AIR in mind. It’s the nature evolution brings Flash to this stage. That’s strong and healthy and a good gene, so to speak.
Flash based Flex and AIR have no luggage to carry. It’s self sufficient, clean, lean and simple.
Have you tried Silverlight lately? If you are not a seasoned .Net developer and know ever complex Windows development stack and layers, teirs, you can’t develop a decent Silverlight application. And if you are not a designer minded developer you can’t develop a seasonable good looking Silverlight application. Actually you can’t develop a Silverlight application easily looks as good as regular .Net application. The Silverlight 2.0 might change that but it can’t change the load of luggage it carries. So, Silverlight will give .Net developers something RIA to chew on but it won’t impact the strong Flash developer/designer base.
Have you tried JavaFX lately? One thing for sure is that a Java developer would rather switch to Flex or stay with Swing doing RIA development than tinkering the legacy Flash alike JavaFX Script.
Open source makes Sun almost irrelevant to Java. But Adobe is more relevant when released Flex and AIR as open source.
There is just one thing I’m not so sure. How Flex and AIR relate to Adobe’s revenue stream?
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I think Silverlight will beat Flex eventually. JavaFX will die soon.
Charles regarding the revenue stream I already told you: one of these months Google buys Adobe mostly because of Flex. That will cover a lot of Flex licenses