10 RIA Predictions for 2009
Because of our very impressive and accurate RIA prediction done in 2006, we’ve made it a tradition to have one at every year end.
First of all, let me review how the predictions for 2008 scores:
- Adobe Won’t Got Acquired: No, it wasn’t.
- Silverlight Won’t Kill Flash: No, it didn’t. It will not (take it as a long standing prediction:-)
- Sun JavaFX Won’t Take Off: No, it hasn’t. (I think Sun will abandon it eventually:-(
- Facebook Won’t Go Open Social: No, it didn’t. Even though myspace did it, Facebook won’t give.
- Android Won’t be Just Another Mobile OS: um…so far it seems just another mobile OS.
- Amazon won’t buy eBay or Vise Versa: Not yet, but it’s about time.
- Google Won’t Be Less Evil: TRUE, don’t get me start on this one.
- iPhone Won’t be Unlocked: As much as we all want to stay innocent, we still need jail-break.
- Adobe won’t release Flex Lite: sign…
- Sill Can’t Uninstall IE: Give up…
Obviously we did very well last year. Now, here are our predictions for 2009:
1. New version of Silverlight will put Flex in defense mode
Microsoft realized the developers, not the designers, are where their strength is so that the new release will focus on making all Microsoft developers happy or happier. That will drive them start writing Silverlight applications like craze. Watch out, Flex.
2. Sun will take a sharp turn to repackage JavaFX with new guts
Released in the same timeframe as Silverlight, JavaFX didn’t take off. Sun will make drastic change and still call it JavaFX. The new JavaFX will make RIA developers take another pass to it. 2009 is the last chance for JavaFX or it’ll be a blurb in tech history.
3. Google will release a RIA runtime to beat Flex, Silverlight, Firefox, and everybody else for UI spaces.
UI spaces are the battle ground. Google already has had some sort of runtime engine in the Google Code. In 2009, Google will make it big (as it did to browser with Chrome.) It’ll be a lightweight runtime that can be plug-ins for browsers. Of cause, the language will be JavaScript but it’ll open for Python or else as well. This will be straightly for developing Google type of simple web applications without caring too much about flashing effects.
4. Flex for mobile will arrive
Flash Lite won’t cut it. Flex for mobile will turn all the Flex developers into mobile developers. Upon release, instantly Adobe will become a bigger mobile player.
5. Flash will officially on iPhone and Android
They need a player, period. The decision is to go with Microsoft or the little creative dude called Adobe. Flash it will.
6. 2009 is the year of the Web Cloud Computing
With Microsoft entered in the cloud game in late 2008, the Cloud will be crowded. Amazon will see intensified competition that they haven’t experienced in the cloud space. Most of the web hosting companies will turn into cloud as well. “Deployable to the cloud” will become software companies’ sales/marketing slogan.
7. Google will buy Adobe
If not, Apple will. This purchase is the gesture that shows either of them is not just competing with Microsoft, they want to nail it.
8. Dojo will be acquired (by Oracle, Sun, IBM or Google) so the rise of big dude backed AJAX RIA.
Microsoft adapted jQuery. Someone else will think, “that makes sense.” then go after the next big one, Dojo.
9. Twitter will announce a way to make money or it’ll be shutdown. Long live blogs.
I still don’t get it how Twitter will revolutionize personal publishing. It’s neat and useful but too hype to me. Especially if it can’t have a way to make money, I don’t see how it can be still around any longer. To survive, there will be a plan and most of us won’t like it.
10. All RIA developers will still have their jobs.
Amen.
Happy New Year!
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First: 10. All RIA developers will still have their jobs.
AMEN.
I like these predictions more than last years’. Here is my take on them:
Yes, Silverlight is definitely getting better. Considering that Microsoft is advised to layoff upto 10% of its employees, don’t you think that will effect the development of Silverlight? It already has a big thing going on with Windows 7. Microsoft will have to pay a very big price if Windows 7 doesn’t go well though I think it will be better than Vista.
Sun is not in a good shape, but JavaFX is slowly getting a little more attention. 2009, as you say, will be a very important year for JavaFX whether it is make or break.
If Google plans to buy Adobe, then there is no point in it trying to come up with its own RIA Runtime. So one of your predictions 3 and 7 negate the other.
I agree that we will see a lot of efforts on mobile apps development.
IIRC, Michael Arrington thinks that Twitter WON’T monetize in the next year. Whether or not it happens, Twitter is loved by its users. Many are able to find good use of it — blogs get traffic through Twitter). It might start charging the business users (many Customer Care services of companies and News corporations use Twitter) or do something else, but I don’t think it needs to fret over its survival.
No. 7 s a big call! and amen on no. 10
“Flash it will.”
Huh?
11. Google will buy Apple after Apple has bought Adobe
#3 can we worrying. Will the platform be Flex-like? How long will it take to learn this new platform?
Will you provide us more details when available?
In any case the RIA market is growing and google will not just look: it will enter the competition sooner or later.
Your predictions of Adobe being bought by Google or Apple seem to have a positive influence on the stock price of Adobe
LOL, Tom. We should contact Adobe if they can gift us something.
Your take on Java FX is completely misinformed. JFX “didn’t take off” in 2008 just because it was only released in December 4, and that’s still just the desktop release (the mobile version is coming only next March). It was not released “in the same timeframe as Silverlight”; Silverlight 1.0 was released in 09/2007, that’s 16 months ago so it’s fair to state that Silverlight didn’t take off in any significant way… in 2007 JFX was in early internal development, it first public beta was released only in mid-2008 and I guess you were just confused by JavaOne announcements. Java FX will be as old as Silverlight is today, only at 03/2010 - and by that time, Sun will have released Java FX Mobile 1.0, Java FX 1.1, Java FX 1.5, Java FX 2.0 and Java FX TV 1.0 - at least; these are just the releases planned for the next year.
@Osvaldo
Saying JavaFX was just released at Dec 4, 2008 was not a so good justification that JavaFX didn’t take off. Many Goolge’s stuffs are still in beta after all these years, never released! I still consider both JavaFX and Silverlight was born in the similar time frame and they are the same generation products. Just look at the pace of which Silverlight’s catching up with Flex and compare what JavaFX was doing, we know clearly JavaFX can’t make it to be a significant player in the RIA space anytime soon or at all. Put technology aside, all the timing you mentioned are all against JavaFX. I was a die hard Java person. It’s sad to see what I see in the Java world.
JavaFX already has the guts that Silverlight 1.0 didn’t. And Sun won’t have time/resources to redo it anyway (such as to something smaller/faster). But I agree that it won’t take off.
I’m the plain “Tom” above, just to clarify I’m not the same as the previous “Tom” commenter. (Sorry for the confusion.)
If at all we do actually do layoffs (not heard / seen concrete evidence we are about to), Silverlight teams will NOT be affected and I’d suspect they layoffs would occur elsewhere in the organisation.
As for Adobe acquisition, highly doubtful Google and Apple are focused in other areas of growth and frankly, doubtful Adobe would allow it :).
My predictions for 2009. We’ll all get along better than we did in 2008 in this here RIA community
-
Scott Barnes
Rich Platforms Product Manager
Microsoft.
@Charles: You’re still wrong, as wrong as 2+2=7. Google releases full-featured, industrial strength apps labeled ‘beta’ just so they can change remote APIs or even withdraw the app. It’s a stupid practice and even most Google lovers (like me) derise Google for the perpetual-beta status of those apps.
It’s a completely different game with JavaFX: all prereleases (including the Preview) were really crude, to tell just one thing the native media codecs were COMPLETELY MISSING, you couldn’t play even a simple MP3 with any release before 1.0 (that introduced the On2 codecs). Prior releases were even worse (e.g., terrible performance compared to 1.0). On top of that, there was absolutely no public beta of JavaFX Mobile prior to December (and Sun changed it a lot of their plans there - no Savaje; CLDC support…), and JavaFX 1.0 contained MASSIVE breaking changes in both language and frameworks, so even code written for the last preview build had to be thoroughly updated for 1.0. And JavaFX desktop depends heavily on JDK 6u10, also released in December.
In short, it was completely impossible to put up any half-decent application with any public pre-1.0 JavaFX build; it was even a bad idea to start any project or learning JavaFX in deep because it had many missing pieces and Sun was changing stuff very fast. Anybody that cared to track JavaFX’s progress knew that. (That’s certainly not your case - I guess it was a long time ago that you were “a die hard Java person”.) Well-informed critics would even call vaporware, and it wouldn’t be FUD considering the low ratio of delivery/PR. So, you really cannot consider JavaFX to be available in ANY extent, before Dec 4 2008. Now, you may still argue that if JavaFX is just one month old, it’s too late in the market to compete - but that’s s completely different argument, one that has its merits but no relation to the technical adequacy of JavaFX or even to Sun’s capacity to promote it; for JavaFX and Sun, this race has just begun and it’s too early to tell.
P.S.: In the timeframe that you consider JavaFX “launched”, it barely existed in any form even inside Sun… they STARTED its development a little over 18 months ago. Their first JavaFX presentation at JavaOne’07 was only smoke and mirrors: they had just acquired Savaje (that was the base for JavaFX’s initial plans) and SeeBeyond (Chris Oliver / F3 project) and they hurried to put together some presentations and demos based on early prototype code. At that time, the SceneGraph project (the rendering engine of JavaFX) wasn’t even started (JavaFX was conceived as a scripting language for Swing!!); and people were just starting to propose the JavaKernel and other many ideas that would become JDK 6u10.
Peace, Osvaldo, peace:-)
I appreciate your frankness about the the bad start of JavaFX. That alone could have stopped many RIA developers even thought it’s worth checking out the 1.0. I should admit that I’ve been harsh about JavaFX. That’s because I was (am still, but seems you won’t agree:-) a Java person in my heart. The bad kick-off was such as disappointment. Besides, there is this Silverlight as a mirror. SL started as something developers couldn’t do too much about it (the 1.0 had no UI components, not even button.) But look at where SL is at. Even I”m start doing serious SL stuffs and be happy about it.
You did shared some insight about how JavaFX got to this point. Even though I still have doubt about the future of JavaFX and bad feeling about JavaFX Script, I think we should all pay better attention to it in 2009 and see how it will grow. One thing we can all agree, there won’t be another year to wait and see.